There is No Such Thing as Chance

There is no such thing as chance. That may seem to be a silly statement, but take a moment to think about that. There does seem to be a certain degree of randomness in many things, but when we break down events to a microscopic level, is anything truly random? Weather is made up of interactions between heat, moisture, physical terrain and the spin of the earth. Acts of God are perceived as being out of one’s control, yet we know we should avoid standing in open fields or swimming during thunder storms. We cannot predict exactly where lightning may strike, but we to enough to have created lightning rods to reduce the threat.

In the world of computers, nothing is random. Programmers have created random generators to simulate the roll of the dice, the shuffling of cards or events in computer games. Programmers have gone to great lengths to create the illusion of randomness to allow us to suspend disbelief and play a game. Unpredictability is an essential part of gaming.

What makes an event unpredictable? How do we accomplish the illusion of randomness in a system which has none? First, as users, it is imperative we do not have all the information. We do not have access to the data used in the calculation.

Secondly, we are provided a finite amount of time, a time too short to create predictions. We would have to understand the variables, apply them and decide on a course of action before the computer program ran the next line of code.

Our inability to understand and keep up, is what provides an opportunity for deception. In the example of computers, something that seemed random is simply a complicated series of calculations with an outcome that is impossible to determine. Even after the program has been written, knowing how it works does nothing to increase the odds of knowing what the outcome will be once the program is running, so even the programmer can enjoy the fruits of his labor. One cannot stop time, and many decisions must be made in moments.

To generate a more realistic environment for gamers, programmers have created online gaming in groups. In this situation, we have multiple people making independent decisions that affect the entire game, thereby removing our ability to predict outcomes with perfection.

Life is eerily like online gaming communities. Although we cannot predict with 100% accuracy what others may do, within the confines of the game, we can anticipate many of their decisions. Each gamer has reasons for making his decisions and can increase his success by developing effective strategies within his environment. He strives to control the outcome by considering every contingency and by thinking ahead of the other players. If he is skilled enough, the apparent randomness disappears and he begins to win more often.

Imagine what we could do if we applied these skills to daily life. Just because we become overwhelmed at times and make poor decisions, it does not mean that the situation was unpredictable or unavoidable. We just need to learn a few things in the same way experienced gamers do.

Weathermen have a very similar problem. Molecules move per the laws of physics. Each molecule is affected by inertia, gravity, heat, moisture, pressure and the physical terrain. Suppose a weatherman had access to all the pertinent information and could calculate exactly what was happening at a given moment. None of that would matter. We can look out the window and see what the weather is like right now. Unless the weatherman is capable of accurate predictions far into the future, he offers no useful service. He requires a sound knowledge of the way the world works and the ability to use that information to his advantage.

We need the same skills in our lives. We need to be able to see how the decisions we make today could affect our future. We need to behave in ways that will increase our chances of success in a world that is not really random at all.